Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 17.770009 20.260280 22.938502 26.028725 29.491567 33.247774 37.626118
2025-02-09 13.986667 17.351012 21.245579 26.069740 31.866298 38.587424 46.950081
2025-02-16 11.785318 15.442861 19.882318 25.635542 32.858564 41.588052 52.894467
2025-02-23 10.337067 14.221096 19.137314 25.765915 34.411636 45.240669 59.756656
2025-03-02 9.290226 13.334000 18.641601 26.045781 36.022515 48.902518 66.674106
2025-03-09 8.356906 12.474676 18.063446 26.107013 37.271172 52.084088 73.061189
2025-03-16 7.475664 11.580104 17.328753 25.846988 37.999396 54.535785 78.519204
2025-03-23 6.873085 11.015692 16.987492 26.074509 39.365326 57.867169 85.282181
2025-03-30 6.511380 10.766324 17.063342 26.878711 41.561023 62.421859 93.929989
2025-04-06 5.926179 10.114693 16.480883 26.648283 42.204461 64.763339 99.492720
2025-04-13 5.161365 9.105512 15.268524 25.361741 41.166948 64.571336 101.310056
2025-04-20 4.901462 8.890929 15.271091 25.941192 42.974882 68.638472 109.574456
2025-04-27 4.662844 8.699322 15.307370 26.593379 44.960570 73.113757 118.740698
2025-05-04 4.285739 8.236361 14.864702 26.437096 45.651879 75.635029 125.033433
2025-05-11 3.910403 7.739251 14.321144 26.063799 45.948112 77.521507 130.378538
2025-05-18 3.654268 7.433467 14.078357 26.173343 47.028713 80.678537 137.843008
2025-05-25 3.450444 7.205309 13.950968 26.465071 48.415844 84.371374 146.299048
2025-06-01 3.229118 6.923142 13.704054 26.524507 49.398767 87.431139 153.832438
2025-06-08 2.981959 6.567470 13.295062 26.261624 49.797614 89.523112 159.833022
2025-06-15 2.822032 6.370939 13.165117 26.492136 51.063951 93.107732 168.445350
2025-06-22 2.747150 6.341415 13.347640 27.308096 53.409125 98.614174 180.507584
2025-06-29 2.551632 6.041911 12.986820 27.074296 53.832049 100.813485 186.980986
2025-07-06 2.253824 5.495192 12.098629 25.769098 52.205264 99.348102 187.025206